Rational investors can benefit from emotional Mr Market
29 November 2018
The current market sell-off has all the hallmarks of the cycle of irrational panic that grips emotional investors. I recently came across an article in a local newspaper titled JSE nears worst monthly performance in 10 years.
What made you become an equity analyst – what was the attraction to financial markets? The wide spectrum of things that are relevant to the role of an equity analyst provides job satisfaction for my curious mind.
Despite short-term volatility, we believe emerging markets will continue to generate long-term outperformance
31 October 2018
EMs outperform developed markets over time, despite volatility over the short term. Although EMs are riskier and more volatile than developed markets, they have outperformed developed markets dramatically since 1970.
Our balanced fund combines ideas to offset risk and provide more consistent returns for investors
26 June 2018
The Denker Sanlam Collective Investments (SCI) Balanced Fund is appropriate for investors saving for the long term who wish to have their savings invested in many independent ideas that aim to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns at lower levels of volatility. To achieve this, we deliberately give investors exposure to aContinue reading
Every year thousands of people head to Omaha in Nebraska in the United States to attend Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ meeting (AGM) – mainly to draw on the investment experience and expertise of 94-year-old Charlie Munger and 87-year-old Warren Buffett. Forty of the approximate 40,000 people who attended this year’sContinue reading
Good economic news doesn’t always mean better returns
24 May 2018
So much about the future is unknown, and share prices reflect the market’s assessment of the future. This article expands on the theme of an article we wrote in January, ‘The danger of making short-term decisions when investing for the long term’.
Finding exceptional opportunities for the Sanlam Global Best Ideas Fund
23 April 2018
It’s hard to believe that markets priced by imperfect humans can be perfectly efficient. Picture this: You are an energetic, inspired investor eager to begin the hunt for the next opportunity – the overlooked jewel, or the mispriced business with a bright future. But no matter how long you burn the midnight oil, or howContinue reading
In my August 2014 article I said the Moody’s downgrade was unwarranted and dangerous. ‘Dangerous from a behavioural point of view in that after investors’ African Bank experience, the downgrade could easily trigger a stampede of both equity holders and retail depositors into selling shares and withdrawing deposits.
Italtile has strong fundamentals at an attractive price
24 January 2018
At Denker, we have a checklist of what we look for in potential investments. In October 1935, Boeing’s new bomber Model 299 crashed during a test flight, killing both pilots. An investigation followed, which found that the reason for the crash was a very simple thing – the control lock had been left in place.
From its humble beginnings in 1969 as a low-cost manufacturer of black and white TVs for the Asian market, Samsung has grown into a global brand. While most well-known for its consumer electronics and mobile phones, its brand and business portfolio are diverse. In this article, we explain a littleContinue reading
The danger of making short-term decisions when investing for the long term
24 January 2018
US research shows that investors underperform the funds they invest in over time. The reason for this underperformance is called the behavioural penalty. Investors tend to lose out because they chop and change their investments in response to the latest news rather than remaining invested.
We invested in Steinhoff based on consistently improving margins, supported by strong divisional management. We first invested in Steinhoff in 2010. Over the years, our investment case in Steinhoff was built on improving margins in the European furniture business.
The global financials Bull Run has just started. Kokkie Kooyman, portfolio manager of the Denker Sanlam Collective Investments Global Financial Feeder Fund, believes that the global financials Bull Run has just started and that the fund is well-positioned to benefit from future growth and mispricings (more detail).
Oracle Corporation – why we believe its valuation is attractive
10 October 2017
Four decades since its launch, Oracle has a solid grip on its market. Oracle is a market leader in relational database management software. Lawrence Ellison co-founded the company in 1977 to develop database software that could compete with IBM’s leading database software.
Pepkor has returned to the JSE as Steinhoff Africa Retail (Star). Pepkor has a colourful history. As shown in Figure 1, it was a listed entity from 1972 to 2004 and then formed part of listed entities Brait and then Steinhoff since 2011. On 20 September 2017, the business came full circle
The impact of Brexit on the SIM Global Equity Income Fund
10 October 2017
UK-listed shares have contributed to the SIM Global Equity Income Fund’s exceptional performance over the years. The objective of the SIM Global Equity Income Fund is to provide a targeted and growing stream of income derived from dividends, in addition to real capital growth.
We can’t forecast the future, but we can prepare for it
10 October 2017
Promoting economic growth and wealth creation is only one of many policy options for South Africa. If South Africa engages in pro-market reforms – as put forward by Professor Brian Kantor in his book, Get South Africa Growing – it is very likely that economic growth would accelerate. Much of the population would benefit fromContinue reading
How we prepare for a global equity market correction. Over the last quarter, global equity markets have advanced another 5%. Over the last 12 months, the return from global equities was 18%, while the last five years (a more meaningful investment period) has produced a remarkable bull run return of some 70%.
Economic growth is essential to break the cycle of poverty in South Africa
26 September 2017
South Africa’s economic growth is stagnating South Africa’s economy is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2017, and growth is projected to improve only marginally in 2018. The cause of this slowing growth is two-fold:
We have entered into a co-branding agreement with Sanlam Collective Investments (SCI), which has been approved by the Financial Services Board. As such, the names of the funds below have changed to be Denker Capital funds and the minimum disclosure documents for September will reflect this change.
Our investment in Naspers’ core assets – why we believe there’s value to be unlocked
31 August 2017
The market is currently applying a significant discount to the total asset value of Naspers In 2012, Naspers traded at a premium to the value of its holding in Tencent, a leading provider of online value-added services in China. The company’s subsidiaries provide media, entertainment, payment, smartphone and online mobile phone value-added services and systems,Continue reading
The South African equity market has outperformed US assets over the last 20 years The local equity market has delivered an annualised return of almost 15% since the introduction of the FTSE/JSE All Share Index in June 1995.
Why the global financials bull run will likely continue
18 July 2017
A lot has changed over the past 12 months in terms of sentiment towards financials By June 2016, Russia had invaded Ukraine, the oil price had fallen from $110 to a multi-year low of $25 (US dollars per barrel), and US banks had been sold down on fears of large oil industry exposures.
Two of our global funds continue to outperform their peers
12 July 2017
Two of our four global funds are once again in the top spots in their categories since inception The Sanlam Global Financial Fund, launched in 2004, and the SIM Global Emerging Markets Fund, launched in 2015, have both consistently outperformed their peers since inception.
Economic and political uncertainty continues to dominate global markets. Although the ride will definitely be bumpy over the short term, we are still finding promising long-term opportunities. Read the transcript of this video below Global markets Looking at the US and UK When surveying the state of global markets, weContinue reading
Although the latest political events trigger serious concerns about the local economic outlook, our portfolios are well diversified and well positioned for macro uncertainty. Read the transcript of this video below South African markets The markets in review We have had another déjà vu moment similar to December 2015 –Continue reading
Opposition against Trump reforms creates uncertainty – but is it all doom and gloom?
5 April 2017
Since Donald Trump’s unexpected election as US president in November 2016, US equity markets have been betting on the Trump reflation trade. The thesis was that he would engineer higher growth, resulting in higher inflation and as a result, higher interest rates. This would help the US (and the world)Continue reading
Sparebanken NN – proof of why you need small caps in a portfolio
5 April 2017
The shares that have generated the highest returns since the launch of the Sanlam Global Financial Fund in 1999 were all smaller companies. In fact, small, quality companies offer many advantages. This includes often being mispriced due to the initial small market cap and perceived business risk. Sparebanken NN inContinue reading
Combined Motor Holdings – an undervalued business with star qualities
5 April 2017
One of the most rewarding aspects of our job is finding a great investment opportunity. Combined Motor Holdings (CMH) is one such gem that remains largely undiscovered, most likely due to its relatively small size. The company has shown exceptional growth in both earnings per share and dividends over theContinue reading
Newsletter Q4 2016: Under the lens: the SIM Global Equity Income Fund
3 February 2017
The SIM Global Equity Income Fund (now four years old) is a unique unit trust in South Africa. The fund aims to deliver an attractive and growing dividend income stream in US dollars as well as capital gains over time, by investing in international shares. While the fund’s strategy andContinue reading
Newsletter Q4 2016: Using implied growth rates to avoid overpaying for a stock
3 February 2017
Paying too much for a stock – even a high-quality stock – significantly increases the risk of permanent capital loss. This is because there is no guarantee that the growth in value will be sufficient to compensate investors over the long term. To establish whether a share is overvalued, investorsContinue reading
Donald Trump’s statement that his approach to his tax affairs makes him ‘smart’ outraged many. However, there is a lot to be said for structuring your assets in a tax-efficient way. This is especially true for retirees, most of whom will not be able to replenish their income or assets during their retirement. Avoiding suboptimal returns caused by unnecessary tax through smart tax planning can help enhance retirees’ outcomes.
Brexit and Trump’s election as US President in 2016 once again proved that we cannot predict macroeconomic events. With earnings growth at a low, we will continue to look for mispriced bargains. Read the transcript of this video below Global markets The world in 2016 2016 was certainly one ofContinue reading
Newsletter Q4 2016: Overview of South African Markets
3 February 2017
Are Despite a year of volatility and surprises, our portfolios had a very good run in 2016. We will continue to focus on bottom-up stock picking to manage the impact of macro events. Read the transcript for the video below South African markets The markets in review The fourth quarterContinue reading
Learn from the past, pick good shares and focus on value President Zuma’s 8 January speech and Value Investing By most accounts president Zuma’s speech was disappointing (surely that’s not possible when everybody had low expectations?). The most disappointing aspect however was the message that in 2017 the ANC wantContinue reading
Are Trump’s policies the right ones to make the USA great again? Will he be able to push them through? Many have been saying: “Trump’s policies won’t work, he is a dead duck” or “It’s in the price in any case”.
Brexit was bad, but US elections won’t have the same effect
14 December 2016
Political events often seem to have a significant impact on currencies and markets, making the compulsion to act after an event strong. Investors fear the longer-term effect which normally is overstated and difficult to predict.
Platinum supply and demand dynamics are increasingly making headlines. The debate mostly revolves around a sustainable level of primary demand, growth in demand, uncertainty about above-ground stockpiles, and growth in recycling. Nevertheless, we maintain a positive outlook for platinum over the medium term. Specifically, we believe Northam is well positionedContinue reading
Get ready for take-off – why we believe Wesco Aircraft offers promising long-term returns
14 December 2016
Industrial distribution is not the most glamorous industry. However, companies in this sector that have a strong competitive advantage and that are available at an attractive price can offer promising long-term investment opportunities. We believe Wesco Aircraft is one of these businesses. And it has the added benefit of operatingContinue reading
With the upcoming presidential elections spreading uncertainty in the US and a web of bureaucracy and political uncertainty dominating Europe, we are seeing a large inflow into emerging markets. Read the transcript of this video below. Global markets The US Markets When we talk about markets at the momentContinue reading
It is standard practice to report performance on the assumption that dividends and interest earned are reinvested. The objective is to make it easier for investors to compare performance to help inform their investment decisions. However, not reinvesting dividends and interest and drawing an income can have a significant impactContinue reading
Despite ongoing volatility and low growth, our funds have outperformed the market on the back of a recovery in the value cycle. We maintain a diversified positioning amidst the uncertainty. Read the transcript of this video below. South African markets Events that affected the markets There has been aContinue reading
US financials … unloved and growing shareholder value despite challenges
14 December 2016
Well managed US banks have managed to grow shareholder value over the past 10 years at a compound 12%+ despite the terrible 2008 to 2012 years (the average of the universe we cover is about 9%). Can the next 10 years be as bad as the past 11 (Dec 2004Continue reading
“A fragile Europe and messy UK leadership race on top of an already low-growth world makes for an extremely tough macro backdrop for investors”, says Neal Smith, Portfolio Manager of the SIM Global Emerging Markets fund at Denker Capital.
SIM Global Equity Income Fund … a growing stream of income
30 March 2016
The SIM Global Equity Income Fund was launched in September 2012 to offer investors the opportunity to invest in a fund that strives to deliver an attractive and growing stream of annual income derived from dividends, while at the same time generating real growth in investment capital on a rolling three-year horizon, by investing in shares globally
Download printer friendly version here The replacing of finance minister Nene is a tragedy. A few days ago former SA Reserve Bank governor Mr Mboweni warned (at a WITS University graduation ceremony) that it is of utmost importance for South Africa to avoid a downgrade to junk status. Many international pensionContinue reading
November was a particular difficult month for Emerging Market Equities, but especially for those Emerging Markets that have greater exposure to resources, like South Africa. The FTSE/JSE ALSI ended the month down 3.9%, with the Resource Sector shedding more than 20%. The rand-hedge sectors on the other hand, continued toContinue reading
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. – Warren Buffett
Commodity prices continue their downward spiral sending former diamonds like ArcelorMittal, Glencore and Lonmin to record low valuations. Humans find it difficult to allow for the possibility of a positive outcome in a negative environment, and vice versa. Fear has set in: Is this the time to be greedy?